Market Insight 2025

📊 June 2025 Market Review: What Every Kenyan Business Should Know

1. 🇰🇪 Economy at a Glance

• Kenya's GDP is projected to grow between 4.5%–5.3% in 2025, slightly slower than 2023’s 5.7%.
• Inflation has stabilized around 3.8%–4.8%, within CBK’s comfort zone.
• Central Bank Rate cut again to 9.75% to ease credit access.

2. 📉 Private Sector Snapshot

• PMI dropped to 49.6 in May – first contraction in 7 months.
• Confidence among businesses is low, with only 4% optimistic about future growth.

3. 🧾 Fiscal & Policy Updates

• The 2025 Finance Bill was passed, raising Ksh 30 billion through improved compliance. Several controversial taxes were dropped.
• Kenya joins a global carbon credit initiative to attract green investment.

4. 💹 Investment Market Overview

• NSE20 index has surged ~26.5% YTD, with strong dividend yields (~6%).
• Foreign investors remain net sellers (~$31.7M), while local interest grows.

5. 🏗️ Sector Trends to Watch

Sector	Trend
Real Estate & Construction	Stable 5–7% annual growth; contributes ~11.8% of GDP
Tech & Digital Economy	AI, fintech, cybersecurity, and e-commerce booming in 2025
Infrastructure	Big projects like Konza City, Expressway, LAPSSET gaining traction
Exports & Trade	Concerns over AGOA expiry and new EU export rules for flowers

✅ What This Means for You

• 📉 SMEs should be cautious: access to credit is still limited.
• 📈 Growth sectors: fintech, real estate, infrastructure, ESG projects.
• 🌍 Green finance and sustainability incentives are emerging opportunities.
• 🛒 Exporters should prepare for possible market disruptions.

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Next Post Teaser: “5 Untapped Opportunities in Kenya’s Green & Digital Economy” – Coming soon!

Sources: World Bank, Central Bank of Kenya, Nairobi Securities Exchange, Reuters, Business Daily